Trajectories of species range shifts under alternative EU socio-economic storylines
WP2 will study the simultaneous effects of changes in climate and land-use on the distribution of vertebrate and plant species throughout Europe.
Incorporate DVM forecasts of land cover (1km resolution) into SDM forecasts of climate and habitat suitability
Account for the effects of life-history traits in allowing species to shift their distributions or maintain robust populations
Evaluate conservation options
The majority of the European biota is likely to be affected in some way by global change. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) are one of the most useful tools with which to quantify the ensuing threats to biodiversity. However, applications of SDMs face several shortcomings, including: a heavy focus on future climatic conditions rather than other drivers of global change, little evaluation as to whether life-histories will permit species to shift their distributions into new areas or buffer the effects of climate change within current distributions, and little explicit inclusion of uncertainty in predictions. We will address these issues for plants and vertebrates in Europe. SDM forecasts of climatic suitability, and DVM forecasts of land cover at 1km resolution, will be integrated to predict global change effects on the European terrestrial biota. These predictions will be further improved with life history traits that determine colonisation and extinction potential. Regional conservation priorities and the efficacy of putative management plans will be evaluated.