Theoretical linkage of population processes to EU-wide biodiversity trajectories
Lead: Linkoping, Sweden
WP5 will develop a theoretical understanding of how habitat fragmentation at different scales affects species persistence and range-shift ability, and will incorporate expectations into models of range-shift (WP2).
Use a theoretical framework based on population models to identify the spatial resolution above which the spatial distribution of resources matters to range-shifts.
Quantify the effects of land-use scenarios and local habitat fragmentation to the range-shifts of species throughout Europe (WP1 & 2).
Ask whether species’ distributions at different spatial scales follow and are predictable by fractal properties.
To forecast biodiversity declines at the EU level we typically model species distributions at coarse spatial resolutions, whereas land-use change and habitat fragmentation take effect at landscape and local scales (e.g. kilometres to tens of metres). We will develop a theoretical understanding of how habitat fragmentation at different spatial scales affects species persistence and range-shift ability. Several easily-measurable species characteristics are likely to affect or correlate with these relationships (e.g. body size, trophic level, phylogeny), and we will look for generalisations that can be made. This information can be used to ensure that habitat integrity is maintained at the spatial scale that creates permeable range-shift corridors and supports aggregations of species in situ that perform ecosystem functions.