Socio–political scenarios for the local implementation of conservation
WP6 will use a landscape-scale case study to simultaneously analyse the impacts of climate change and local landscape structure on biodiversity, and analyse the potential for land-management policy to mitigate these impacts via green infrastructure (GI).
- Use population studies to measure effect of landscape structure on the robustness of ecological populations and communities under climate change
- Measure landscape permeability for species experiencing climate-driven range-shifts
- Evaluating the potential and limitations of implementation options of the EU Strategy on Green Infrastructure for biodiversity conservation and adaptation to global change using participatory scenario development and modelling
Conservation must facilitate species survival in heavily fragmented landscapes, alongside agriculture, industry and urbanization. To guide decisions, we perform an empirical case study in a typical European agricultural landscape in central Germany, asking two key ecological questions. First, which species have the potential to remain in the selected landscapes, which are committed to extinction and which have the potential to colonize new landscapes? We answer this question by constructing hierarchical SDMs, using data on landscape structure and composition at the landscape scale, and climate data at the continental scale. Second how permeable is this landscape to species experiencing climate-driven range-shifts? This approach will use spatial synchronicity in population dynamics to assess landscape connectivity, and thus long-term permeability. Our analyses focus on species with a representative range of life-history characteristics and that are of importance in their own right: characteristic plants and birds, and arthropods directly important to ecosystem services, e.g. ground beetles (natural enemies) and wild bees (pollinators).
The EU Strategy on Green Infrastructure (GI) is an approach to environmental management that acts alongside, and in combination with, anthropogenic land usage. GI consists of a strategically planned network of high quality green spaces and other environmental features such as hedgerows, fish passes or biodiversity-friendly fields. Consequently, GI has potential to maintain landscapes that help EU species survive in situ or shift their distribution as climate changes. However, the success of GI relies on both political frameworks and the capacity and willingness for implementation on the ground. Therefore, we will analyse the vertical interplay between EU policies, national laws, regional spatial planning frameworks and local community development using the Central Germany case study as an example. Stakeholders (policy makers, farmers, business owners) will be involved in developing implementation scenarios of the EU Strategy on Green Infrastructure which will be analysed concerning their ecological impact with the above described modelling approaches as well as concerning their economic and social consequences.