Work Package 7

From SDMs to local population responses to climate change: empirical validation

Lead: Portugal

WP7 will ask whether large-​scale biodiversity forecasts can inform global change impacts on of local populations and communities, and consequently management practices.


  1. Evaluate evidence for a relationship between climate suitability — as evaluated with EU-​wide SDMs — and local population dynamics and abundances

  2. Investigate the influence of ecological factors on this relationship


To translate large-​scale biodiversity forecasts into community resilience, we need to know the effects of global change on species’ landscape-​scale distributions and local abundances. If SDMs can estimate local distribution and abundance, a scaled suitability relationship (SSR) exists. We can use the shape of the SSR to devise EU-​wide but ground-​level management recommendations for species and communities (i.e. GI, WP6). Recent support for the SSR has emerged, but to test it systematically in a management context we will study a range of well-​studied taxa and landscapes.

Contact:Casa Cordovil, 2º andar, Rua Joaquim Henrique da Fonseca, 7000 – 890 Évora 
phone: +351 266 759 350 email: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

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