From SDMs to local population responses to climate change: empirical validation
WP7 will ask whether large-scale biodiversity forecasts can inform global change impacts on of local populations and communities, and consequently management practices.
Evaluate evidence for a relationship between climate suitability — as evaluated with EU-wide SDMs — and local population dynamics and abundances
Investigate the influence of ecological factors on this relationship
To translate large-scale biodiversity forecasts into community resilience, we need to know the effects of global change on species’ landscape-scale distributions and local abundances. If SDMs can estimate local distribution and abundance, a scaled suitability relationship (SSR) exists. We can use the shape of the SSR to devise EU-wide but ground-level management recommendations for species and communities (i.e. GI, WP6). Recent support for the SSR has emerged, but to test it systematically in a management context we will study a range of well-studied taxa and landscapes.